Is the endgame war in Server 8 over before it begins?

I think a lot of people have tuned out from Server 8. The endgame seems very one-sided, and many players seem resigned to their fate. The discussion on the forums seems to have largely died down as well.

Meanwhile, here are the standings:

WW standings Sep 19

All of the LEGO World Wonders are now at the bottom of the standings, and ap.PTT still holds the top positions.   There has been some talk of medium-sized hammers that have hit the LEGO World Wonders, but I don’t think any battle reports from these hits have made it to the forums or otherwise been made public, except for the ones I wrote about in my last post about server 8.

Is ap.PTT’s victory inevitable? Let’s take a closer look.

Let’s start with the reasons that argue in favour of the case that they are indeed unstoppable. They are by far the biggest alliance on the server, first of all. They consist of the dominant alliance in the Northwest and the Southeast, and they also have some significant members in the Northeast. They hold eight world wonders, spread out over 3 different quadrants. Their World Wonders are holding the lead 3 spots and they’re all ahead of LEGO’s.

PTT locked down their quadrant a long time ago, and haven’t faced any internal threats for a long time, and that means they’ve had more time to build and to plan for endgame than any other alliance.

The Non-aggression pact between PTT/Apeiron and Silent But Deadly, the rules of much of the Northeast, remains intact as the game enters its final stages.

And LEGO seems pretty beaten down and doesn’t seem to be offering much resistance at all.

But PTT and Apeiron leaders aren’t celebrating yet. Though they’ve had many opportunities to do so, none of of them have declared themselves the winners or started to boast about their victory yet. I’ve seen endgames declared over before only to find out the the alliance that looked like it had a dominating lead could be quickly taken down by hitting the right targets, and it could still happen here.

Here’s a recent interchange from a neutral observer and a leader player from ap.PTT from the S8.com forums:

Pipirop: Things have very much changed since my last update. As I predicted earlier apeiron and PTT officially merged and are now less than 2 weeks away of victory. In the past ten days many medium sized hammers hit practically all the LEGO WW villages essentially removing any chance LEGO had to stop the ap.PTT from winning the server. SBD has remained away from the fighting and are in close pursuit of ap.PTT. The obvious outcome of thye server will be a ap.PTT victory and there are only limited factors that could potentially complicate things. The only possibility is SBD and LEGO joining forces and whilst LEGO throws what ever armies are left still around SBD catches up with a mad resources push to win the WW race.

My sources though tell me that in the next week or so ap.PTT will mount the final offensive with the key objectives to chief all four WW villages of LEGO. I suppose this will be the perfect ending for a strong tour de force and diplomacy for ap.PTT.

That will also be the final update of the journal for this server.

Congrats to ap.PTT for a convincing victory in all fields, to LEGO for mounting as much opposition as possible, and to SBD for managing to still hang on there when all odds were against them.

If Pipirop’s information about a “Final Offensive” is correct, we could almost have a replay of the S5.com finish all over again! It would also explain why we haven’t seen very many big endgame armies used by PTT and Apeiron so far. In theory, the longer ap.PTT waits the more players from LEGO will go inactive, and thus the defense at their World Wonders will be more and more softened up. It’s been weeks since LEGO had a victory to celebrate or anything to boost morale, so players might start to lose motivation and move on to other servers before this one ends.

The scenario about SBD and LEGO joining forces is just speculation, but it’s also probably the only scenario where anyone but one of the leading ap.PTT World Wonders wins.

Here’s a reply to Pipirop’s analysis by a PTT player:

Caliban (from PTT):

Saying that ap.PTT have won when they have not and before either SBD or LEGO have thrown any hammers is grossly premature. This server will not end in 2 weeks.
This is why I’ve been hesitant to call this server over despite the evidence that PTT and Apeiron have a dominating lead. There should still be a lot of hammers out there. But Pipirop doesn’t think there are:
 
There are only 10-12 real hammers (more than 300k crop) available still on the server. 5-7 are with ap.PTT and at least 2 with SBD. Fred Garvin has more than 2 mil defence in the village, medium hammers would barely scratch that plus it would take huge coordination to do it. Same goes for the rest ap.PTT villages with the exception of Klynch. I know that you try to keep your players focused, but it is a foregone conclusion at this point Even if SBD takes out garvin and danix still you can bring down cassini with minimal effort.
I have to wonder how Pipirop could have the information about how many hammer armies each alliance has. Does he really have contacts with the leaders of each alliance who will share this usually top-secret information with him (knowing the defense at the leading World Wonder is impressive too). Or is he just an extremely keen observer? Or is it possible he doesn’t know as much as he claims? Time will tell if what he says is correct, but I must say that his numbers seem like a low amount of endgame armies for a .com server, especially given how few large endgame armies have been used so far.
 
But right now there’s still no signs of that happening. The usual epic endgame war is still waiting to start, and it might just keep on waiting until the end of the game passes and never really start. But when and if it does, I plan on writing all about it.
 
(There are some battles taking place, and some of them are posted here:  http://forum.travian.com/showpost.php?p=1447936&postcount=131)
 
 
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